Survey Predicts Trump Victory in Electoral College Against Biden, with Biden Leading Against DeSantis

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In a significant revelation from political analysts, a recent survey conducted by Stack Data Strategy suggests a complex scenario for the upcoming presidential elections. The survey, which involved 15,205 registered voters nationwide between October 13 and November 3, presents a hypothetical electoral landscape, with former President Donald Trump poised to win the electoral college over current President Joe Biden. However, in a different matchup, Biden appears to have a considerable lead over Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida.

The detailed survey, featured in Politico, indicates that Trump would secure 292 electoral votes, surpassing the required 270 to reclaim the presidency. Biden would garner 246 electoral votes in this theoretical contest. Interestingly, despite losing the electoral vote, Biden would narrowly win the popular vote with 49% against Trump’s 48%.

In an alternative scenario where Biden faces off against Governor DeSantis, the outcome is drastically different. Biden dominates this matchup, obtaining 359 electoral votes to DeSantis’s 179, signifying a substantial electoral landslide.

The survey delves into specific states, highlighting the battlegrounds that could tip the scales. Trump is predicted to reclaim Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – states he won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Biden, however, is expected to maintain his hold on Michigan. These key states, which played pivotal roles in the last two presidential elections, are once again in the spotlight.

In a detailed breakdown, Trump shows a lead in several of these crucial states. He has a 1.4 percentage point lead in Arizona and a 3.3 percent advantage in Georgia. Pennsylvania sees Trump leading by 2.3 percent, and in Wisconsin, he has a one percent edge over Biden.

Interestingly, the survey also explores scenarios including independent candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Cornel West, adding complexity to the electoral predictions.

Joe Bedell, head of Stack Strategy in North America, underscores the significance of these findings. He notes that if Trump is the Republican nominee, he is likely to win, based on current data. Bedell also points out that neither party would benefit significantly from changing their candidate.

This survey comes on the heels of three other polls from the New York Times/Siena College, Emerson College, and Bloomberg News/Morning Consult, all showing Trump with an advantage over Biden in most of these swing states.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, these findings offer a crucial glimpse into potential outcomes for the next presidential election, highlighting the ever-changing dynamics of American politics.