Poll Shows Trump Leading Biden in Key Swing States

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In a surprising turn of events, a new poll conducted by J.L. Partners reveals that former President Donald Trump is currently leading President Joe Biden in two crucial swing states, Arizona and Georgia, ahead of the upcoming election.

Arizona and Georgia Lean Toward Trump

The poll shows that in Arizona, Trump is favored by 39% of likely voters, surpassing Biden’s 34%. Additionally, 20% of those surveyed expressed their preference for a different candidate. Georgia reflects a similar trend, with Trump leading at 39% compared to Biden’s 36%. Here, 15% of the respondents opted for an alternative option.

Biden Holds Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, the situation is reversed. President Biden enjoys a 37% voter support rate, while Trump trails behind with 32%. These figures are particularly noteworthy given that all three states supported Trump in the 2016 presidential election but switched allegiance to Biden in 2020.

Shifts in Voter Demographics

The poll also sheds light on significant demographic shifts in voter support. Trump has garnered 31% support among Black voters, a demographic traditionally leaning Democratic, and 37% among Hispanic voters. Biden, in contrast, has 34% support among Hispanic voters. Despite these changes, Biden continues to hold higher support among women, graduates, and the overall Black voter base. However, according to James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, the gap is closing, especially among Black and Hispanic voters.

Methodology and Reliability

The poll surveyed 550 likely voters in each of the three states, utilizing a mix of landlines, text messages, and apps. The margin of error for the poll is reported to be plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, providing a reliable snapshot of current voter sentiments in these pivotal states.

Implications for the Upcoming Election

These results could have significant implications for the upcoming presidential race, indicating a potential shift in the political landscape. Both parties are likely to intensify their campaign efforts in these key swing states in the coming months.